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Mega Millions Odds of Winning

The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 290,472,336 per $5 play, and the odds of winning any prize are 1 in 23.07. Below are the odds for every prize tier, how more tickets change them, and what a ticket is worth after taxes.

Maintained byJacob Dymond

Odds checked

  • Jackpot odds: 1 in 290,472,336 per $5 play
  • Odds of winning any prize: 1 in 23.07
  • Exact odds for all 9 prize tiers

Prize tiers

What are the odds for every Mega Millions prize?

Mega Millions draws five white balls and one Mega Ball. There are 9 ways to win. The odds below are calculated exactly from the number pools and match the official prize chart.

Jackpot odds
1 in 290,472,336
Prize tiers
9
Overall odds
1 in 23.07
Prize tiers with match requirements, payout, and odds.
TierMatchPrizeOdds of Winning
Jackpot5 + Mega BallJackpot1 in 290,472,336
Tier 25 white balls$2,000,000 at 2x (up to $10,000,000 at 10x)1 in 12,629,232
Tier 34 + Mega Ball$20,000 at 2x (up to $100,000 at 10x)1 in 893,761.03
Tier 44 white balls$1,000 at 2x (up to $5,000 at 10x)1 in 38,859.18
Tier 53 + Mega Ball$400 at 2x (up to $2,000 at 10x)1 in 13,965.02
Tier 62 + Mega Ball$20 at 2x (up to $100 at 10x)1 in 665
Tier 73 white balls$20 at 2x (up to $100 at 10x)1 in 607.17
Tier 81 + Mega Ball$14 at 2x (up to $70 at 10x)1 in 85.81
Tier 9Mega Ball only$10 at 2x (up to $50 at 10x)1 in 35.17

Every $5 play includes a random 2x-10x multiplier on non-jackpot prizes. Prize amounts below are base prizes before the multiplier.

Source: MegaMillions.com how to play.

More tickets

Do more tickets improve your Mega Millions odds?

Each different line covers one more combination, so 100 lines are about 100 times as likely to hit the jackpot as one line. The chance is still tiny, and the cost grows just as fast.

Mega Millions jackpot odds by number of lines played
Lines playedCostJackpot oddsChance of any prize
1$51 in 290,472,3364.33%
5$251 in 58,094,467.2019.87%
10$501 in 29,047,233.6035.79%
50$2501 in 5,809,446.7289.09%
100$5001 in 2,904,723.3698.81%
1,000$5,0001 in 290,472.34> 99.99%
Jackpot chance
1 in 14,523,616.80
< 0.0001%
Chance of any prize
58.78%
Cost per drawing
$100

Assumes every line is a different combination. Duplicate lines add cost without adding coverage.

Ticket value

What is a Mega Millions ticket worth after taxes?

At the current $413 million jackpot ($170.3 million cash), a $5 ticket is worth about $0.37 after federal tax, counting every prize tier. Jackpot shown for the Tuesday, October 20 drawing.

Value of a $5 ticket
$0.37
Return per $1
7¢
Break-even cash value
$2.31 billion

Mega Millions prizes over $5,000 are taxed at the 37% top federal rate plus the selected state rate. Assumes you do not split the jackpot; a shared jackpot lowers the value.

Lotteries withhold 24% for federal tax at payout, but a jackpot puts the winner in the 37% bracket, so the rest is due at filing. For a full breakdown by state, use the lottery tax calculator.

Odds history

Have the Mega Millions odds changed?

The current 1 in 290,472,336 jackpot odds come from the game's present number pools. Here is how the format got here.

  1. October 2017

    The game moved to 5 from 1-70 plus a Mega Ball from 1-25, with jackpot odds of 1 in 302,575,350 at $2 per play.

  2. April 2025

    The ticket price rose to $5 with a built-in 2x-10x multiplier on non-jackpot prizes, and the Mega Ball pool shrank to 24. Jackpot odds improved to 1 in 290,472,336 and overall odds to about 1 in 23.07.

Compare

How do Mega Millions odds compare with other multistate games?

Jackpot odds and overall odds for each national game, per play. Lower numbers mean better chances.

Multistate lottery odds compared
GamePriceJackpot oddsAny prize
Powerball$21 in 292,201,3381 in 24.87
Mega Millions$51 in 290,472,3361 in 23.07
Millionaire for Life$51 in 22,910,5801 in 8.47
Lotto America$11 in 25,989,6001 in 9.63

Compare every U.S. game in the lottery odds guide or run your own numbers in the lottery odds calculator.

Mega Millions Odds FAQ

Short answers about Mega Millions jackpot odds, prize odds, Quick Picks, and buying more tickets.

What are the odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot?

The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot are 1 in 290,472,336 for each $5 play. You must match all five white balls and the Mega Ball.

What are the odds of winning any Mega Millions prize?

The overall odds of winning any Mega Millions prize are 1 in 23.07. Most of those wins are the smallest prizes, so the overall odds say little about your chance of a large payout.

Does buying more Mega Millions tickets improve my odds?

Each different line adds one more combination. With 100 different lines your jackpot chance is about 1 in 2,904,723.36, which is still a long shot and costs $500 per drawing.

Do Quick Picks have better Mega Millions odds than choosing my own numbers?

No. Every valid combination has exactly the same odds. Quick Picks can reduce the chance of sharing a jackpot because they avoid popular patterns like birthdays, but they do not make a win more likely.

Does playing the same Mega Millions numbers every draw help?

No. Each drawing is independent, so a combination that has never been drawn is no more "due" than one drawn last week. Playing the same numbers only changes convenience.

What are the odds of matching just the Mega Ball?

Matching only the Mega Ball has odds of 1 in 35.17 and pays $10 at 2x (up to $50 at 10x).

Does the Mega Millions add-on change the odds?

Every $5 play includes a random 2x-10x multiplier on non-jackpot prizes. Prize amounts below are base prizes before the multiplier.

Responsible play

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